SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell by more than $1/barrel in early trade on Monday following US President Donald Trump’s claim that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire”, easing concerns about disruptions to Russian fuel exports despite escalating hostilities across the Middle East.
- Trump announces deal for Russia to supply additional diesel to US, global markets
- US Gulf oil output gradually returning post-Isaias
- Diesel shortages remain a key concern for policymakers
Oil prices at 03:00 GMT (in $/barrel)
| Product | Latest | Previous | Change |
| Brent December | 102.94 | 104.72 | -1.78 |
| WTI November | 90.04 | 91.85 | -1.81 |
At 03:00 GMT, Brent crude futures were down by 1.70% while US WTI fell by 1.97% after posting gains over the previous two sessions.
In a post on social media platform Truth Social on 11 October, Trump said: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!”
The announcement came days after Trump said on 9 October that Russia would increase diesel supplies to US and global markets under an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Separately, the US lifted sanctions on Russian deliveries of diesel, according to an order from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the Department of the Treasury.
The statement followed days of pressure from Trump for Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, which have disrupted Russian fuel production and contributed to tighter global diesel supplies.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on 11 October that Ukraine was still awaiting details of the proposed agreement from Washington and reiterated that Kyiv supports efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
There was no immediate reaction from Moscow on Trump’s ceasefire announcement.
MIDDLE EAST ATTACKS ESCALATE
Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) said a fresh attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on 11 October killed one person and injured 11 others. The strike came a day after a Houthi attack on the airport killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said on 11 October that the Yemen-based group had also targeted Dammam’s King Fahd International Airport and two facilities operated by state energy giant Saudi Aramco.
Aramco has not made any official statements on the attacks.
US SUPPLY OUTLOOK IMPROVES AFTER HURRICANE
In the US Gulf Coast, energy operations were gradually recovering after Hurricane Isaias.
The Category 2 hurricane made landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast on 10 October, causing widespread power outages and disruptions across the southeastern US.
About 58% of US Gulf of America oil production and 49% of natural gas output remained shut in as of 11 October, according to latest update by the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE).
US producer Chevron said on 10 October that it had continued production at four operated Gulf of Mexico platforms while temporarily shutting in output at five others, adding that it was redeploying personnel and working to restore full production.
“Throughout Hurricane Isaias, Chevron deployed robust processes and technology across our Gulf Coast operations to protect our people, facilities and the environment and help safely maintain reliable fuel supplies,” the company said on 10 October.
“We have utilized state-of-the-art technology to safely continue production at four Chevron-operated [US Gulf] platforms. Production at our other five facilities has been temporarily shut-in,” Chevron said.
“We are advancing efforts to redeploy personnel to our [US] Gulf platforms and restore full production. Remobilization of our crews will continue through Sunday,” Chevron said.
The gradual return of offshore production has eased some concerns about prolonged supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.
The US Department of Energy also authorized an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on 10 October to address hurricane-related supply disruptions.
DIESEL MARKET IN FOCUS
International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol on 11 October urged member governments to accelerate previously pledged diesel stock releases and consider additional supply measures ahead of the agency’s governing board meeting on 15 October.
In a message to IEA member governments, Birol said current diesel market conditions “merit immediate attention” and could best be managed through continued cooperation among them.
The agency said the March 2026 collective action remained in place and provided a framework for further near-term steps.
Birol called on members that have not yet fully delivered diesel volumes pledged under the March coordinated release to accelerate those commitments, while countries that have already completed their obligations should assess whether additional diesel releases are necessary.
The IEA also noted recent attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, including the strikes on Riyadh’s international airport, as a factor in its assessment of tightening diesel markets.
“As we did in March, I believe we can once again demonstrate the IEA’s capacity to act together in support of energy security and economic stability,” Birol added.
